"Our company's continued success has been build on the reliability and integrity
that we demonstrate with each of our customers, suppliers and employees."
- Chris Metz

 

Economic Analysis February 2015

GDP

Fourth quarter actual GDP of 2.6 percent slowed remarkably from the revised 5 percent pace in the 3rd quarter, although 2015 is expected to make some improvement.  Lower oil prices, thus bringing lower gas prices, have indirectly given all consumers an increase in disposable income. Growth is expected to accelerate slightly as we move into mid-year.  The housing market is expected to make some comeback as consumer balance sheets improve and steady employment gains work through the system.

2014 4th. Qtr

2015 1st. Qtr

2015 2nd. Qtr

2015 3rd. Qtr

2015 4th. Qtr

Actual

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

2.6

2.6

2.7

3.1

3.1

Chain weighted GDP

 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July

 

The Leading Economic Indicators released on February 19, 2015 increased .2 percent in January to 121.1, following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.3 percent increase in November.  While the LEI rose in January the pace of growth has moderated in the last several months.  The short term outlook for 2015 is still favorable but the lack of strong momentum in residential construction, along with a weak outlook for new orders in manufacturing, poses some downside risk for the U.S. economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Federal Reserve News

The collapse in oil prices has subdued inflation concerns for the time being.  The Federal Reserve is expected to stay on the sidelines until sometime in the third quarter when a nominal rate increase is expected.  The one caveat to this scenario sees dismal productivity growth putting, upward pressure on wages and inflation, requiring more aggressive action.

 

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